感知中国经济的真实温度,见证逐梦时代的前行脚步。谁能代表2019年度商业最强驱动力?2020年1月9日,2019十大经济年度人物颁奖典礼将于北京751D·PARK盛大召开,敬请期待。【】

Feel the real temperature of the Chinese economy, witness the pace of the dream-driven era. who can represent the strongest driving force for business 2019? On January 9,2020, the 2019 Big Ten Economic Person of the Year Awards ceremony will be held in Beijing 751D MARK Grand, please look forward to it. 【】

  2019年12月23日,中国社科院副院长蔡昉在人民日报发表文章《创造第二次人口红利》认为,要创造第二次人口红利,不仅要提高储蓄率,而且要提高人力资本以促进提高全要素生产率、保持较高的投资回报率。而提高人力资本,归根结底要靠教育。

On December 23,2019, Cai Fang, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in a People's Daily article,\" Creating a second demographic dividend,\" arguing that to create a second demographic dividend, we should not only increase the savings rate, but also increase human capital to promote higher total factor productivity and maintain a higher return on investment. In the final analysis, raising human capital depends on education.

  针对该观点,中央党校周天勇教授发表《产能过剩的状况下经济增长不可能有第二次人口红利》一文强调,国民经济是供给与需求同时作用而增长。没有人的需求,就根本没有必要进行生产和供给。文章问道,人口减少了,人类的需要也就减少了,那么,高素质劳动力和创造的产品和服务,谁来消费和享受?

In response to this view, zhou tianyong, a professor at the central party school, published a paper entitled \"there is no chance of a second demographic dividend for economic growth in the case of overcapacity \", stressing that the national economy is a combination of supply and demand. Without human demand, there is no need for production and supply at all. The article asks, the population is reduced, the human needs are also reduced, then, the high-quality labor force and the creation of products and services, who will consume and enjoy?

  显然,蔡昉侧重于经济循环的供给端,周天勇则认为更大问题在需求端。虽然供给和需求是一体两面,但相比于供给,需求才是更基础的动力。我们也因此认为超低生育率对经济的更大危害,是需求规模和多样性的下降,而非资本和劳动力短缺。这与周天勇教授不谋而合。

Clearly, mr. tsai is focusing on the supply side of the economic cycle, and mr. zhou thinks the bigger problem is on the demand side. Although supply and demand are one and two sides, but compared to supply, demand is a more basic driving force. We also believe that the greater harm to the economy of ultra-low fertility is the decline in demand size and diversity, not in capital and labour shortages. This coincides with professor zhou tianyong.

  在中国经济学界,蔡昉是国外人口红利理论的主要引入者。按此理论,随着生育率降低,抚养比下降,产出中更大比例可用于积累,促进技术和产业进步,推动经济增长而获得第一次人口红利。而要获得所谓的第二次人口红利,前提是人们为了应对养老增加储蓄,保障经济增长所需的资本供给。

In China's economic circles, Cai Fang is the main introducer of foreign theory of demographic dividend. According to this theory, as the fertility rate decreases and the dependency ratio decreases, a larger proportion of output can be used to accumulate, promote technological and industrial progress, and promote economic growth to reap the first demographic dividend. The so-called second demographic dividend is provided that people respond to the need to save more for the aged and secure the capital they need for economic growth.

  这些理论备受人口控制论者的青睐。在他们看来,降低生育率能带来第一次人口红利,促进经济发展;而低生育率加剧的老龄化又可带来第二次人口红利,促进经济进一步发展。按此逻辑,低生育率永远是好事。

These theories are favored by population controlists. In their view, a reduction in fertility would bring a first demographic dividend and promote economic development, while an ageing with a higher fertility rate would bring a second demographic dividend and further economic development. By this logic, low fertility is always good.

  但其实低生育率只是牺牲长期利益换取短期利益。少一些小孩短期可降低抚养比,增加人均收入,但长期却提高抚养比,减少人均收入。而且因为规模效应弱化,在扣除技术进步和城市化等因素后,后期减少的幅度会大于前期增加的幅度。

But low fertility is merely a sacrifice of long-term gain for short-term gain. Short-term lower child dependency ratio, increase per capita income, but long-term increase dependency ratio, reduce per capita income. And because the scale effect is weakened, after deducting the factors such as technological progress and urbanization, the later period will decrease more than the previous increase.

  因此,靠降低生育率来获得第一次人口红利只是寅吃卯粮,且不说其前提是之前高生育率带来的大量工作人口。纵观历史,经济增长并不需要通过降低生育率来实现。西方国家的工业化和崛起就是在人口暴涨的背景下完成的;随着生育率降低,西方国家发展速度却普遍放缓。

Therefore, the first demographic dividend from lower fertility rates is a boon, not to mention the large working population that preceded high fertility rates. Throughout history, economic growth does not need to be achieved by reducing fertility. The industrialization and rise of the West is accomplished against the backdrop of a population boom; as fertility declines, the West's growth rate has generally slowed.

  而第二次人口红利之说,更像是老龄化危机下牵强附会的自我安慰。依照第一次人口红利的思路,第二次人口红利理论强调的依然是资本积累。但在人口老化和萎缩的前景下,经济的短板是需求萎缩和创新不足,而非资本短缺。即使有高储蓄率,需求和创新萎靡也会导致投资收益下降,资格价格下跌。欧洲和日本已出现负利率,中国则产能过剩,投资边际收益下降。如果说第一次人口红利还能勉强表示寅吃卯粮带来的短期受益,第二次人口红利更像是在望梅止渴的愿望中想象出的一个并不需要的核桃。

And the second demographic dividend is more like far-fetched self-comfort in an aging crisis. According to the idea of the first demographic dividend, the second demographic dividend theory still emphasizes capital accumulation. But with the prospect of population ageing and shrinking, the economy's short board is a shrinking demand and lack of innovation, not a shortage of capital. Even with high savings rates, weak demand and innovation can lead to lower investment returns and lower eligibility prices. Europe and Japan already have negative interest rates, while China has overcapacity and declining marginal investment earnings. If the first demographic dividend grudgingly indicates the short-term benefits of eating out, the second demographic dividend is more like a walnut not needed in the desire to quench May's thirst.

  当然,蔡昉在文中并未过多谈及储蓄率,而是将创造第二次人口红利的重点放在教育提升上。但教育提升并不能归功于人口转变,将其带来的经济增长归为第二次人口红利并不恰当。不管其论断是否成立,人口红利在形式上都是源自人口转变;第一次源自生育率降低,第二次源自老龄化。但没有老龄化,教育水平也会提升,甚至可能更快。

Mr tsai, of course, doesn't talk too much about saving rates, but rather focuses on creating a second demographic dividend on education promotion. But the rise in education cannot be attributed to the demographic shift, and it is inappropriate to classify the economic growth as a second demographic dividend. Whether or not its argument holds true, the demographic dividend in its form stems from demographic shifts; the first from lower fertility and the second from ageing. But without aging, education will rise, perhaps even faster.

  那么低生育率是否有利于提升教育水平呢?如果孩子太多导致来不及兴建学校,这个说法或许成立。但过去20年来,中国裁并了大量中小学,原因之一是学龄儿童不断减少。从1998年到2018年,全国小学在校人数从亿减到亿。同期农村小学从61万所锐减到16万所,城市小学也从万所减到万所。

So is low fertility conducive to higher education? This may be true if there are too many children to build a school. But over the past 20 years, China has cut a large number of primary and secondary schools, partly because of the declining number of school-age children. From 1998 to 2018, the number of primary schools in the country decreased from 100 million to 100 million. In the same period, the number of primary schools in rural areas dropped from 610,000 to 160,000, and in urban areas from 10,000 to 10,000.

  这种情况也发生在人口快速增长的一线城市。从1998年到2018年,北京常住人口从1246万增至2154万,小学却从2511所降至970所。实际上,中国大城市学龄儿童占人口比例几乎全球垫底,所以这些城市教育资源紧张,不是因为孩子太多,而是公共教育投入不匹配。

This also happens in first-tier cities with rapidly growing populations. From 1998 to 2018, the resident population of Beijing increased from 12.46 million to 21.54 million, while the number of primary schools fell from 2511 to 970. In fact, the proportion of school-age children in china's big cities is almost the bottom of the world's population, so these cities have tight educational resources, not because there are too many children, but because public education investment does not match.

  那么学生和学校的减少是否有利于教育资源优化?其实裁并后剩下的所谓优质教育资源,只是人口较多时留下的遗产。这种靠遗产得来的优化是被动且不可持续的,更合理的是增加投入来优化教育资源。学校好坏的关键取决于师资和财力。假设一个100万人口城市拥有两所一流中学,这个城市的人口降到50万后,由于规模效应弱化,其最好中学的师资和财力,多半比不过人口100万城市中最好的两所的平均水平。

So is the reduction of students and schools conducive to the optimization of educational resources? In fact, the so-called quality education resources left after the cut are only the legacy of a large population. This legacy-based optimization is passive and unsustainable, and it is more reasonable to increase investment to optimize educational resources. The key to good or bad schools depends on teachers and financial resources. Assuming that a city of one million people has two top-notch secondary schools, with its population falling to half a million, its best secondary schools are likely to have more faculty and financial resources than the average of the two best of the city's 1 million.

  本文作者之一梁建章曾当面询问1992年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者Becker对中国独生子女政策的看法。Becker先问中国是不是来不及建学校。在得知中国其实在关闭学校时,他不假思索地回答应该停止了。他的理由是,只要有能力培养人才,就不应减少人口,因为对所有国家来说,人是最宝贵的,尤其是受过教育的人口。

Liang Jianzhang, one of the authors of this article, asked Nobel laureate Becker in person what he thought of China's one-child policy in 1992. Becker asked if China had no time to build schools. When he learned that China was actually closing schools, he answered without thinking that it should stop. His argument was that the ability to develop talent should not reduce the population, since for all countries people were the most valuable, especially the educated.

  那么低生育率是否有助于大学教育普及呢?其实后者主要是政策的选择。如图1,中国大学招生人数从1990年开始稳步增长,但直到2000年之前,中国年招生人数还一直低于印度。从1998年到2008年,虽然中国高考适龄人数从1910万增至2806万,但进入大学人数更从108万增至599万,入学率从%飙至%。时任亚洲开发银行经济学家的汤敏在1998年11月向中央建议大学扩招一倍,其中列举的五个理由之一就包括缓解就业压力。这甚至可以理解为,适龄人口增长带来的短期就业压力,反而可能部分促成了大学扩招政策的实行。

Will low fertility help popularize college education? The latter is mainly a policy choice. As shown in figure 1, the number of Chinese university enrollment has steadily increased since 1990, but until 2000, the number of Chinese annual enrollment was still lower than that of India. From 1998 to 2008, although the number of Chinese college entrance examination age increased from 19.1 million to 28.06 million, the number of college entrances increased from 1.08 million to 5.99 million, and the enrollment rate rose from% to%. Mr. Tong, then an economist at the Asian Development Bank, suggested to the central government in November 1998 that universities should double their enrollment, one of the five reasons for which includes easing employment pressures. This may even be construed as a short-term employment pressure caused by the growth of the age-appropriate population, which may have contributed in part to the introduction of university enrollment expansion policies.

  对经济发展来说,人口既是需求端的消费者,又是供应端的人力资本。尽管需求是经济发展的终极动力,人力资本却是决定经济效率和发展水平的关键。人力资本可从数量和质量来衡量。但在长期的生育限制氛围下,很多人只注重质量,而忽视了数量的基础性意义。比如,针对未来人口的急剧萎缩,往往有人回应,质量比数量重要,数量减少有什么不好呢?言下之意,只要有质量就无需在乎数量,甚至认为质量与数量冲突。

For economic development, population is both a demand-side consumer and a supply-side human capital. Although demand is the ultimate driving force of economic development, human capital is the key to determine economic efficiency and development level. Human capital can be measured in terms of quantity and quality. But in the long-term fertility restriction atmosphere, many people only focus on quality, but ignore the basic meaning of quantity. For example, in response to the sharp shrinking of the population in the future, there are often people who respond that quality is more important than quantity, and what's wrong with reducing quantity? The implication is that as long as there is quality, there is no need to care about quantity, even think that quality and quantity conflict.

  但质量和数量的关系,是相辅相成,而非矛盾对立。一个群体的力量,既取决于质量,也取决于数量。在同等质量下,人力资本与数量成正比,因为聚集和规模效应,甚至可能呈现加速正比关系,即数量多一倍,总体力量多一倍还不止。因此,人口数量减少不意味着质量会上升,实际情形更可能相反。在这种情况下,数量的萎缩对整体人力资本是双重打击,既减少个体数量,又降低个体的平均质量。

But the relationship between quality and quantity is complementary, not contradictory. The power of a group depends on both quality and quantity. Under the same quality, human capital is proportional to quantity, because aggregation and scale effects may even show an accelerated proportional relationship, that is, double the quantity and more than double the overall strength. Therefore, a decline in population does not mean that quality will rise, and the actual situation is more likely to be the opposite. In this case, the shrinking of quantity is a double blow to the overall human capital, both reducing the number of individuals and reducing the average quality of individuals.

  在现代科技和经济发展中,少数杰出人才的开创性贡献功不可没。这其实恰恰说明了数量的重要性。天分很大程度是随机分布的,没人知道哪个小孩是下一个乔布斯或任正非。上天给每个人发了一张能力的彩票,彩票上是否印有天才靠的是运气,而良好的教育是兑现彩票的能力。所以最后有多少天才冒出来,取决于受过良好教育的人口规模。

In modern science and technology and economic development, the pioneering contribution of a few outstanding talents cannot be ignored. This illustrates the importance of quantity. Talent is largely random, and no one knows which child is the next Jobs or Ren Zhengfei. God has given everyone an ability lottery, whether the lottery is printed genius is luck, and good education is the ability to cash the lottery. So how much genius eventually emerges depends on the size of a well-educated population.

  人力资本质量的提高体现在知识和技能的提升。人口较多的地方,提升效率通常更高。我们分析中国科学院院士出生地数据发现,即使扣除经济发展程度的影响,人口密度越大的省份产生院士的比例也较大。原因可能是,人口更密的地方,教育效率更高,竞争更激烈,有助于激发人的潜力。

The improvement of human capital quality is reflected in the improvement of knowledge and skills. Where there is a larger population, efficiency gains are usually higher. We analyzed the data of the place of origin of academicians of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and found that even after deducting the influence of economic development degree, the proportion of academicians in the provinces with higher population density was larger. The reason may be that, where the population is denser, education is more efficient and competitive, helping to stimulate human potential.

  美国是目前整体科技水平最高的国家,这很大程度上可归因于美国是发达国家中人口最多的国家。虽然美国人口一直少于中国,但其大学学历的人口却长期高于中国,这是美国科技力量长期领先中国的重要基础。但这一情况近年开始逆转;从科研人数来看,中国在2000年不到美国一半,现已超美国,20年后将远超美国。得益于庞大的人才规模,中国在新兴的高铁、移动通讯、人工智能等领域已居世界领先地位。

The United States is now the most technologically advanced country as a whole, largely attributable to the fact that the United States is the most populous of the developed countries. Although the population of the United States has always been smaller than that of China, the population of its college degree has long been higher than that of China, which is an important basis for the long-term leading of the United States in science and technology. But that has reversed in recent years; in terms of the number of researchers, China was less than half of the United States in 2000, now more than the United States, and in 20 years'time will be far ahead of the United States. Thanks to its huge talent scale, China has become a world leader in emerging areas such as high-speed rail, mobile communications and artificial intelligence.

  目前中国人口是美国的四倍多,但这个优势的很大部分却被美国与其他英语国家的一体化,以及美国在全球广纳精英的能力所抵消。过去200年来,中国人口只增长3倍多,而美国人口却大幅增长30多倍。特别是,中国人口很快就将进入负增长,并将加速萎缩,美国人口却有望持续增长。即便不考虑美国吸引移民的优势,中美两国生育率的差距,也会让中国相对美国的人口优势每代人减少40%。如果中国不能大幅提升生育率,两三代人之后,中国年出生的人口将少于美国,中国将彻底丧失对美国的人口优势。

China now has more than four times the population of the United States, but much of that advantage has been offset by America's integration with other English-speaking countries and its ability to embrace the world's elite. China's population has only grown more than threefold over the past 200 years, while the U.S. population has grown more than 30fold. In particular, China's population will soon enter negative growth and will accelerate its contraction, while the US population is expected to continue to grow. Even without considering the US's advantage in attracting immigrants, the gap in fertility between China and the United States would reduce China's population advantage over the United States by 40 per cent per generation. If China fails to raise its fertility significantly, it will lose its population advantage over the United States in two or three generations'time, with fewer people born in China than in the United States.

  重质轻量也普遍存在于养育观念中。在长期一胎化影响下,生育一孩已成为许多家庭的默认选择,少生精养几乎成为共识。但有关独生子女状态对孩子的长期影响,学术界并没有明确的结论。有人认为,独生子女可获得更多的关爱和投入,因而成绩较好,但也有人认为独生子女缺少兄弟姐妹互动,并更可能被长辈溺爱,因而性格相对孤僻、任性、敏感,缺乏吃苦耐劳、冒险进取和团队精神。

Heavy quality and lightweight are also commonly found in parenting concepts. Under the influence of long-term one-childization, having one child has become the default choice for many families, and it has almost become a consensus to have fewer sperms. But there is no clear academic conclusion about the long-term impact of the one-child state on the child. Some believe that the only child can get more care and investment, and thus better results, but others believe that the only child lacks sibling interaction and is more likely to be spoiled by the elders, and therefore has a relatively withdrawn personality, willfulness, sensitivity, lack of hard-working, adventurous and team spirit.

  只有一个孩子时,家庭的希望和投入都会集中在这个孩子身上,不要输在起跑线上会成为默认心理。但如果所有人都提前偷跑、提前冲刺,那只是徒增个体压力,对整体无益。如果每家平均两三个孩子,人们也许不会如此焦虑,养育方式可能更从容,孩子的后劲也许更大。

When there is only one child, the family's hope and input will be focused on the child, do not lose in the starting line will become the default psychology. But if everyone steals and sprints ahead of time, it's just an increase in individual pressure that won't do the whole thing any good. If the average of two or three children per family, people may not be so anxious, parenting may be more relaxed, the child may be more stamina.

  从社会角度来看,一孩对人力资本的平均贡献不会大于多孩。从家庭内部来看,独生子女的成绩,即便好于来自多孩家庭的孩子平均成绩,却会低于多个孩子中成绩最好的那个。为了验证上述判断,我们以智商测试结果来代表成绩,根据家庭成员之间的智商相关性来比较一孩和多孩的智商差异。

From a social point of view, the average contribution of a child to human capital is not greater than that of many children. From within the family, an only child's performance, even if better than the average child from a multi-child family, is lower than the one with the best scores of multiple children. To verify the above judgment, we used the results of the IQ test to represent the results, and compared the IQ differences of one child and many children according to the IQ correlation between family members.

  在同住条件下,父母与孩子的智商相关性是,而兄弟姐妹间的相关性是(Kaufman,2009)。据此可比较高智商一孩家庭与中上智商多孩家庭。这里高智商家庭指父母智商处于人群中最高1%的水平,中上智商家庭指父母智商处于人群中19%的水平。假设高智商家庭生1个孩子,中上智商家庭生3个,并假设家庭成员的智商呈多元正态分布,那么在平均意义上,高智商家庭中唯一孩子的智商要低于中上智商家庭的3个孩子中最聪明的那个。换言之,要培养杰出人才,少而精的养育方式抵不过数量优势。多一个孩子,就多一份希望。

under co-living conditions, the iq correlation between parents and children is, whereas the correlation between siblings is (kaufman,2009). According to this can compare high IQ one-child families and upper-middle IQ multi-child families. The high IQ family here refers to the highest 1% of the parents'IQ in the population, while the middle and upper IQ family refers to the 19% of the parents'IQ in the population. Assuming that a high-iq family has one child and a middle-and upper-iq family has three, and that the IQ of a family member is multivariateally normal, then on average, the only child in a high-IQ family has a lower IQ than the smartest of the three children in a middle-and upper-IQ family. In other words, to cultivate outstanding talent, fewer and better parenting methods do not match the quantitative advantage. One more child, one more hope.

  这里并没有考虑多孩家庭孩子之间的互动,以及父母育儿经验积累等因素的影响。本文作者之一黄文政在哈佛任教时同系有个同事叫蔡天西,生于1977年,22岁获哈佛大学博士学位,后成为哈佛当时最年轻的教授。她来自浙江一个小镇,是父母最小的孩子,上面有5个哥哥。全家6兄妹有5人获博士学位,1人获硕士学位。父亲蔡笑晚被誉为人才“魔术师”,曾把自己培养孩子的经验写成《我的事业是父亲》一书。如果再晚20年,蔡笑晚也只能培养一个最多两个孩子,他的为父经验也没多大用武之地。

This does not take into account the interaction between children in multi-child families and the influence of factors such as parental experience accumulation. One of the authors of the article, mr. huang, was a colleague of his department at harvard, tsai tianxi, who was born in 1977 and earned a phd from harvard university at the age of 22 before becoming the youngest professor at harvard. She is from a small town in Zhejiang, the youngest child of her parents, with five brothers on it. Five brothers and sisters in the family received a doctorate and one master's degree. Father cai xiao night is known as a talent \"magician \", has his own experience of raising children as\" my career is a father \"a book. If another 20 years later, mr cai can only raise a maximum of two children, his experience as a father is not much use.

  针对全面放开生育的建议,有人认为这会让贫寒家庭多生,影响未来发展。这种看法难以被实证数据所支持。实际上,中国普通家庭孩子的平均智商,勤劳程度都处于全球前列,中国家庭少生不仅是中国的损失,也是全世界的损失。而且,中国农村地区的生育意愿都已远低于西方国家,贫寒家庭多生是求之不得的好事。再说,只要机会公平,出身贫寒的孩子对社会的贡献未必就小。像划时代的人物如伽利略、牛顿、瓦特都出身贫寒;美国历史上杰出的政治家如林肯和富兰克林也出身贫寒,尤其是发明了避雷针并参与起草《独立宣言》的富兰克林是父亲的第17个孩子。

In response to the proposal to fully liberalize fertility, some argue that this will increase the number of poor families and affect future development. This view is difficult to support by empirical data. In fact, China's average family children's IQ, hard-working degree is in the world's forefront, Chinese families are not only a loss to China, but also to the world. Moreover, the fertility willingness in China's rural areas is far lower than in the West, and it is a good thing for poor families to have more. Besides, as long as the opportunity is fair, the contribution of poor children to society may not be small. Like epoch-making figures such as galileo, newton, and watt are from poor backgrounds; and prominent statesmen such as lincoln and franklin in american history are from poor backgrounds, especially franklin, who invented the lightning rod and worked on the declaration of independence, was the 17th child of his father.

  中国现在的城市居民,不论教育水平和社会地位多高,往上算几代大都来自农村的贫寒家庭。因为早年只有富家子弟才有机会接受正规教育,中国近代杰出科学家中出身贫寒的不多。但新中国的教育普及改变了这点,让来自贫寒家庭的人才大量涌现。

No matter how high the education level and social status are, the urban residents of China are mostly from poor families in rural areas for generations. Because in the early years only rich children had the opportunity to receive formal education, there were few outstanding scientists in modern China. But the popularity of education in new china has changed this by bringing talent from poor families to the fore.

  航天员的选拔万里挑一,对身体,智力、学识和性格的要求极其严格。我们分析过中国进入过太空的10名航天员的出身。除了杨利伟和刘洋分别来自普通教师和工人家庭外,其余8人都均来自农民家庭,其中一半家境贫寒。聂海胜在兄弟姐妹8人中排行第6,父亲去世后,母亲靠干农活把孩子养大。翟志刚是兄弟姐妹6人中最小的,母亲靠卖炒瓜子才供他读完小学和初中。刘伯明在6个兄弟姐妹中排行第2,小时候到草甸子上放猪,暑假曾到砖厂做工。在景海鹏记忆里,小时候家里没吃过菜;父母在为生产队干活之外,靠绑扫帚换钱来让家人不挨饿。

The selection of astronauts is one in a million, and the physical, intellectual, intellectual and personality requirements are extremely strict. We have analyzed the origins of the 10 astronauts who have entered space in China. With the exception of Yang Liwei and Liu Yang from ordinary teachers and workers'families, the remaining eight are from peasant families, half of whom are poor. Nie Haisheng ranked 6th among the eight siblings. After his father died, his mother raised her child by doing farm work. Zhai Zhigang is the youngest of six siblings, and his mother sold fried melon seeds for him to finish primary school and junior high school. Liu Boming ranked No.2 among the six siblings, as a child to the meadow on the pig, summer vacation to the brick factory to work. In Jing Haipeng's memory, the family did not eat food when they were children; their parents were working for the production team, tied brooms for money to keep their families from starving.

  这些家庭非常贫寒,靠自己的劳作含辛茹苦把孩子养大,为国家养育了杰出的航天员。这些脱颖而出的航天员不仅给国家做出了杰出贡献,也给家族带来了荣耀和实惠。

These families are very poor and have raised their children through their own efforts, raising outstanding astronauts for the country. These stand-out astronauts not only made outstanding contributions to the country, but also brought glory and benefits to the family.

  正是千千万万勤劳普通甚至贫寒的家庭撑起了中国社会,让中国在改革开放后迅速崛起。李光耀在回忆录中记述,中国真要追上来,甚至会比新加坡做得更好。他说,新加坡人不过是福建、广东等地目不识丁、没有田地的农民的后裔,而中国有的尽是留守中原的达官显宦、文人学士的后代。作为世界最有远见的政治家之一,李光耀对中国人口的素质深具信心。他曾领导的新加坡就由无数贫寒农民的后裔所组成,现在已迈入世界最发达的国家之列,其人口素质更居世界最前列。

It is millions of hard-working, ordinary and even poor families who support Chinese society and make China rise rapidly after reform and opening up. Lee wrote in his memoir that China would do better than Singapore to catch up. The singaporeans, he said, were only descendants of farmers in fujian, guangdong and other places who were illiterate and had no land, while china was full of descendants of d'artists and literati who stayed in the central plains. Lee Kuan Yew, one of the world's most visionary politicians, has deep confidence in the quality of China's population. His former leader, Singapore, made up of the descendants of countless poor peasants, is now among the most developed countries in the world and has the highest population quality in the world.

  蔡昉在文中提到,体现在劳动者技能和企业家能力中的人力资本,从根本上讲则要靠教育发展获得整体提高。这当然没错,但中国目前大学招生比例已超过适龄人口一半,继续提升潜力有限。虽然免费义务教育只有九年,但中国家庭在基础教育所投入的精力和费用之大,使得中国对教育的整体投入不菲;中国从事补课教育上的上市公司在数量和质量上都全球领先。

Cai Fang mentioned in the article that the human capital embodied in the skills and entrepreneurial ability of workers, fundamentally speaking, depends on the development of education to achieve overall improvement. This is certainly true, but china has more than half of its college enrollment and has limited potential to continue to rise. Although free compulsory education is only nine years old, the energy and cost of Chinese families in basic education make China's overall investment in education a lot; the listed companies engaged in supplementary education in China are leading in quantity and quality in the world.

  在我们看来,中国教育更大的问题,是应试教育的重负和低效让家长心力交瘁。为此,我们建议取消中考,合并初中和高中,将小学到高中的12年缩减到10年;同时将义务教育延至10年,普及高中教育。现在的初三和高三时段,主要用于复习考试。通过取消中考和淡化高考来缩短两年中学教育不会影响学习进程,反而可提升效率。如果女生在19-20岁本科毕业,22-23岁硕士毕业,提前两三年进入社会,会有更多时间恋爱、结婚、养娃,更好地平衡职业和家庭。

In our view, the bigger problem of education in China is that the burden and inefficiency of examination-oriented education are exhausting parents. To this end, we propose to abolish the entrance examination, combine junior high school and high school, reduce the 12 years from primary to high school to 10 years, and extend compulsory education to 10 years to universal high school education. Now the third grade and senior high school period, mainly used to review the examination. By eliminating the middle school entrance examination and diluting the college entrance examination to shorten the two-year secondary education will not affect the learning process, but can improve efficiency. If girls graduate from 19-20 years old,22-23 years old master's degree, two or three years ahead of time to enter the society, there will be more time to love, marry, raise children, better balance career and family.

  蔡昉建议延伸义务教育至涵盖学前教育。我们非常认可,之前也提过类似建议。国家卫计委2015年的调查显示,0—3岁婴幼儿的入托率仅4%,远低于一些发达国家的50%。如果政府牵头兴建大量幼托中心,并让常住当地的家长可将孩子免费送入寄托,那将大大减轻养育家庭的负担。

Cai Fang recommended extending compulsory education to cover pre-primary education. We accept very well that we have mentioned similar suggestions before. According to a 2015 survey by the National Health and Family Planning Commission, the rate of children aged 0 to 3 is only 4%, much lower than 50%of some developed countries. The burden of raising families would be greatly reduced if the Government led the construction of a large number of child care centres and allowed permanent parents to send their children free of charge.

  不过蔡昉在文中提到的目标只是让出生孩子数量在政策规定的前提下尽可能接近家庭的生育意愿。这里蔡昉没有表示生育限制政策有何不妥,他对人口形势也显得太过乐观。根据国家卫计委2017年全国生育状况抽样调查,2006~2016年,中国育龄妇女的平均理想子女数和打算生育子女数为分别为和。生育意愿比这要高得多的韩国,目前实际生育率不到,有何理由认为不痛不痒的政策能让中国生育率接近意愿?更何况,要维持民族的可持续繁衍,生育率必须要达到至少的更替水平,而不是蔡昉之前提到的毫无根据的。

But mr tsai's goal in the article is to make the number of children born as close as possible to the family's fertility willingness under the policy. Mr. Cai didn't say there was something wrong with fertility restrictions, and he was too optimistic about the demographic situation. According to the National Health and Family Planning Commission's 2017 National Fertility Survey, the average number of ideal children and the number of intended children of Chinese women of childbearing age from 2006 to 2016 are respectively and. South korea, which has a much higher fertility willingness than this, now has a lower actual fertility rate. Why should there be any reason to think that a painless policy can bring china's fertility rate close to its willingness? Moreover, to sustain the nation's sustainable reproduction, fertility must reach at least the replacement level, rather than what mr tsai has previously mentioned as unfounded.

  总而言之,中国面临的远比教育提升更加严重的问题是超低生育率。要提升生育率有太多的事情需要做。我们也一直建议通过对较高收入家庭减免个人所得税,对较低收入家庭直接发放育儿补贴来减轻养育家庭的负担。

All in all, China's far more serious problem than higher education is ultra-low fertility. Too much needs to be done to raise fertility. We have also consistently recommended reducing the burden of raising families through the reduction of personal income tax for higher-income families and the direct payment of parental benefits to lower-income families.

  随着二孩政策导致的生育堆积释放结束,育龄人口急剧萎缩及生育率持续走低,中国出生人口面临快速萎缩。中国庞大的人口规模是令竞争对手称羡的禀赋,但这个宝贵的优势正在以前所未有的速度弱化。尽管教育水平的提升加上技术进步和城市化让中国经济依然存在上升空间,但这些效应与人口规模并不是非此即彼的关系。如果人口规模不下降,这些效应只会更加强大。因此,教育水平提升促进经济增长的效应,绝不是淡化超低生育率危机的理由。

China's birthrate is facing rapid contraction as the two-child policy ends with a sharp shrinking population of child-bearing age and falling fertility. China's vast population is an endowment that rivals admire, but this precious advantage is weakening at an unprecedented pace. Although the rise in education, combined with technological advances and urbanization, still leaves room for the economy to rise, these effects are not related to population size. If the population does not decline, these effects will only be more powerful. Thus, the effect of higher levels of education on economic growth is no justification for downplaying the ultra-low fertility crisis.


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