美国总统特朗普8日发表电视讲话说,伊朗对驻有美军的伊拉克军事基地的袭击未造成美方人员伤亡,美国将对伊朗实施新的经济制裁,但也愿与伊方就共同利益合作。这番讲话给过去几天持续升级的美伊局势踩了一脚刹车,但同时也引出一个问题:几天前他下令击杀伊朗将军苏莱曼尼是出于什么目的?现在目的达到了吗?

U.S. President Donald Trump said in a televised speech on Tuesday that Iran's attack on an Iraqi military base with U.S. troops in Iraq did not cause casualties on the U.S. side, and that the United States would impose new economic sanctions on Iran, but was also willing to cooperate with the Iraqi side on common interests. The remarks put a brake on the escalating U.S.-Iranian situation over the past few days, but also raised the question: what was the purpose of his order to kill Iranian General Suleimani a few days ago? Has the goal been achieved now?

曾任美军驻伊拉克和阿富汗部队司令的退役上将彼得雷乌斯接受采访时对此有所解读,说特朗普可能是想通过杀死苏莱曼尼来“重建威慑”。之前,美国指责伊朗要对沙特油田设施遇袭、美国驻伊拉克使馆遭围攻等事件负责,但却一直没有采取行动。击杀苏莱曼尼,就是美国向伊朗发出的一条尖锐信息:美国不会容忍这种挑衅。

Retired Gen. Petraeus, a former commander of U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, read this in an interview, saying Trump may be trying to \"rebuild deterrence\" by killing Suleimanis. Previously, the United States accused Iran of being responsible for such incidents as the attack on Saudi oil fields and the siege of the US embassy in Iraq, but has not acted. The killing of Suleimani was a sharp US message to Iran that the US would not tolerate such provocations.

如此说来,击杀苏莱曼尼就好像是经过数月时间精心策划的一场心理战。在美军心理战概念中,任何军事行动都有用来影响外国受众的潜在心理意义。这次击杀苏莱曼尼,显然会给包括伊朗在内的美国对手带来强烈心理效应。但这次行动果真算是一次心理战吗?或者它是一次成功的心理战吗?

Thus, the killing of Suleimani was as if it had been a well-planned psychological battle for months. In the concept of US military psychological warfare, any military action has the potential psychological significance to influence foreign audiences. The killing of Sleimani would clearly have a strong psychological effect on American opponents, including Iran. But is this really a psychological battle? Or is it a successful psychological battle?

从打击目标的选择上看,击杀敌方首脑人物可以瘫痪对方指挥,形成对敌方的威慑效应,这在作战中是一种常用战法。但这次美军将苏莱曼尼选作击杀对象,却存在一定问题。因为苏莱曼尼是伊朗的重要政治和军事人物,在伊朗民众中影响力巨大,将他杀死无异于对伊宣战。

From the selection of strike targets, it is a common method to kill the enemy leaders to paralyze the other side's command and form a deterrent effect on the enemy. But this time the u. s. military will choose surimani as the target, but there are some problems. Because Suleimani is an important political and military figure in Iran, he is so influential among Iranians that killing him is tantamount to declaring war on Iran.

要知道,击杀一个主权国家的军事高官,与消灭本·拉登或巴格达迪等恐怖组织头目,影响和后果是完全不一样的。从对伊朗报复行动的反应来看,华盛顿应该是不愿意与伊朗及其所支持的力量陷入全面战争的,但它将苏莱曼尼作为打击目标却做了等同于宣战的选择。

You know, the effects and consequences of the killing of a sovereign state's high-ranking military chief are totally different from the killing of leaders of terrorist organizations such as bin Laden or Baghdadi. In response to Iran's retaliation, Washington should be reluctant to engage in a full-scale war with Iran and the forces it supports, but it has made the same choice as declaring war on Suleimani as a target.

从对目标受众的判断上看,心理战的成功有赖于对目标受众心理和情感的细致分析和把握。美国看到了伊朗近来经济形势承压,尤其是有民众因经济不振和对自身生活条件不满等原因上街游行,因而认为伊朗民众对政府的支持度不会再像几十年前两伊战争时那么高,觉得伊朗政权在对美国这次打击行动采取报复措施的问题上会有所顾忌。但从实际反应看,美国人显然有所错判。苏莱曼尼被击杀后,伊朗上下表现出对美国极大的愤慨和自身的高度团结,伊朗的民族凝聚力反而因美国的暴力行为大大提升。

From the judgment of the target audience, the success of the psychological war depends on the careful analysis and grasp of the psychology and emotion of the target audience. The United States has seen recent economic pressures in Iran, especially when people marched in the streets for reasons such as economic weakness and dissatisfaction with their own living conditions, so it believes that Iranian support for the government will no longer be as high as it was in the war between Iran and Iran decades ago, and that the Iranian regime will be wary of retaliating against the US strike. But in practical terms, Americans are clearly misjudged. After Suleimani was killed, Iran showed great indignation and solidarity with the United States, and its national cohesion was greatly enhanced by American violence.

从预期效果的实现程度来看,心理战是否成功最终取决于是否达成预定的心理战目标。如果说华盛顿这一举动是通过打击伊朗来稳定中东乱局并巩固伊拉克战争和阿富汗战争的成果,那么现在的结果却是伊朗报复情绪暴涨,伊拉克的反美情绪也高涨,伊拉克议会甚至通过决议要让美军撤走,这恐怕不是美方最初的愿望。如果说这次行动是为震慑伊朗及其代理人力量,那么苏莱曼尼被杀后的形势发展表明,伊朗和其他中东反美力量似乎都加强了对苏莱曼尼被刺事件报复的声调甚至行动策划。这显然也不是华盛顿此次“威慑行动”的目的。

From the degree of realization of the expected effect, the success of psychological warfare ultimately depends on whether or not to achieve the intended goal of psychological warfare. If washington's move is to stabilize the chaos in the middle east by fighting iran and consolidate the gains of the iraq war and the afghan war, then the result is iran's vengeance has soared, iraq's anti-american sentiment has soared, and the iraqi parliament has even passed a resolution to let american troops withdraw, which is probably not the american side's original wish. If the operation was intended to deter iran and its agents, developments following mr sulimani's killing suggest that both iran and other middle east anti-american forces seem to have stepped up their rhetoric and even planned action against mr sulimani's assassination. This is clearly not the purpose of Washington's "deterrence operation.”

因此,无论从打击目标的选择、目标受众的心理分析还是预期效果的实现程度来看,击杀苏莱曼尼都不是一次成功的心理战,反而是适得其反。

Therefore, whether from the choice of the target, the psychological analysis of the target audience or the degree of achievement of the expected effect, killing Suleimani is not a successful psychological battle, but is counterproductive.

除了作为“心理战”的失败之外,在法理上,击杀苏莱曼尼的行动也因违反国际法的暗杀性质备受诟病。伊朗在舆论上博得国际社会同情,美国却进一步将自己推向遭人反感的位置。在心理上,这一行动则将美国国内民众带入“9·11”事件以来最大的一次恐慌之中。某种程度上说,从击杀苏莱曼尼的行动付诸实施那一刻起,主动权就转到了伊朗一边。在对驻伊拉克美军基地实施报复后,伊朗军方并没像特朗普所说的已经“解除戒备”,而是保留了进一步报复的可能。无论美国力量多么强大,面对伊朗和其他反美力量可能采取的时间不定、地点不定、目标不定的报复行动,它真的做好准备了吗?

In addition to the failure as a \"psychological war \", in legal terms, the killing of Suleimani was also criticized for the nature of the assassination in violation of international law. While Iran has won international sympathy for its public opinion, the United States has pushed itself further to the antipathy. Psychologically, the move has brought America's citizens into the biggest panic since 9\/11. In part, the initiative shifted to Iran from the moment the killing of Suleimani was put into practice. After retaliating against the U.S. military base in Iraq, the Iranian military did not \"de-alert \", as Trump said, but kept the possibility of further retaliation. No matter how powerful the US may be, is it really ready to respond to the uncertain timing, uncertain location, and uncertain targets that Iran and other anti-American forces may take?

前两任美国政府想做却没敢做的事情,这届政府却做了。不少分析认为,击杀苏莱曼尼事件对现任总统谋取连任具有一定政治意义,但对美国民众尤其海外人员和驻军来说,更多的却是挥之不去的安全担忧。心理战是一种有计划的行动,旨在通过向对手传递特定信息,使其发生有利于实施者的情感、态度、意见和行为改变。从这些方面看,华盛顿的这次行动显然是失算和莽撞的。击杀苏莱曼尼的行动不仅没能改变对手的敌对态度,反而坚定和增强了对方的对抗意志。更有分析人士质疑,这次行动最终只是让美国民众付出了安全上的代价,是以一个仿佛确定的行动,将自己和美国民众带入了巨大的不确定之中。伊朗导弹袭击驻伊拉克美军基地后,从美国国内舆论的焦虑和担忧来看,现在倒好像是伊朗对美国打起了心理战,而且效果还不错。(作者是国防大学教授)

The first two US administrations wanted to do what they didn't dare, but this one did. Many analysts believe the killing of suleymani is politically significant for the current president's re-election, but it is more of a lingering security concern for american citizens, especially overseas personnel and troops. Psychological warfare is a planned action aimed at changing the feelings, attitudes, opinions, and behavior of the implementers by delivering specific information to their opponents. In these ways, Washington's operation is clearly miscalculated and reckless. The killing of Suleimani not only failed to change his opponent's hostile attitude, but instead strengthened his opponent's will to fight. More analysts have questioned the fact that the operation ended up only at the expense of the American people's security, and that it brought itself and the American people into great uncertainty with a seemingly certain action. After the Iranian missile attack on the U.S. military base in Iraq, judging by the anxiety and concern of U.S. domestic opinion, it now seems that Iran has fought a psychological war against the United States, and the effect is good. (The author is a professor at the University of National Defence)


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